Sort of like August, historically February serves as a sort of lull on the sports calendar. In August, Major League Baseball’s trade-deadline drama has come and gone, playoff races are beginning to shape up but the picture is still hazy. Simultaneously, many sports fans begin to anticipate the coming months as both college and pro football looms in the month ahead. February offers that same lack of interest. The Super Bowl will be over and done with, and midseason NBA action doesn’t offer much as teams are settling down before the stretch run of March and April.
For the casual fan, college basketball still hasn’t entered the stratosphere – and won’t until at least conference tourney season. Fine. But if you’re looking for some intriguing story lines in February, college hoops should be abundant. At this point, the top eight or so programs seem pretty settled into their likely roles as Regional No. 1 or 2 seeds. After that it’s anyone’s best guess. Many of the BCS conferences are still wide open in the top half, most having some bottom-feeders fighting for a chance to dance in a recognizably weak year.
With that, let’s take a look at some questions, possibilities and scenarios that will play out before Tournament season a month from now.
Will North Carolina fail to reach the NCAA’s?
The last time a non-Matt Doherty coached Tar Heel squad failed to reach the NCAA’s was way back in 1974 (a team that still went 22-6, by the way). Presently, Carolina sits at 13-7 (2-3) and is just two spots from last in the ACC. Despite losing four players last June to the NBA, I think its safe to say no one expected this much of a fall-off, with two starters returning a heralded freshmen class in the mix. It appears even Coach Williams overestimated his young roster, as a tough non-conference schedule – that gave them wins over Ohio St. and Mich. St. – might leave Carolina short on the wins totals Last week’s home loss to Wake Forest on ESPN really put this team on its “heels.”
With 11 games remaining, Carolina still has to travel to Maryland, Duke, Wake, Ga. Tech, and Va. Tech, and will probably need to win seven of them to finish safely with 20 victories. My guess? Carolina gets to 19 or 20, beats Duke at home and gets two road wins out of the MD/WF/GT/VT combo, sneaking in as a feisty 8/9 seed.
What’s to be made of the mess in the Big East?
Another year; another argument settled. Once again the Big East is loaded, with six teams currently in the top 20, no signs that will change. Both Syracuse and Villanova, at this point, would be disappointed with anything less than the No. 1 seed in the East, and the conference should expect to get somewhere between seven and nine teams in the NCAAs. Let’s call ‘Nova, ‘Cuse, WVU, Pitt, and Georgetown “locks” and give UConn “bolted” status. That leaves 1-2 spots open for Louisville, ND, Cincy, and SHU to fight over.
Other than Kentucky, Louisville played no one out of conference and lost on its home floor against SHU. With a brutal finish to its conference season, even Pitino’s creepy, Alec Baldwin “Bossa Nova"-inspired cream-white suit can get the Cardinals into the NCAAs. “I’m not saying I want to get it on with your girlfriend – just someone that looks exactly like her.”
Notre Dame will need a strong finish as well, with no impressive non-conference wins and Ls to Loyola-Marymount and Northwestern. The win against WVU was solid, but it will need another solid conference win (Pitt or G-Town) to solidify its resume. The upcoming games against Cincy (2/4) and SHU (2/11) will be crucial.
Cincinnati looks like the best bet to grab that seventh berth as it stands now. Yes, they are just 13-7 (4-4), but the Bearcats have wins against Vanderbilt, Maryland, and nearly beat Gonzaga. The losses to SHU, St Johns, and Lousiville hurt, but can be overcome. However, the team will have to start separating itself, as it finishes @WVU, ‘Nova, and @Georgetown.
That leaves Seton Hall as the leader for a hypothetical eighth B.E. team (we’ll assume the conference will get at least seven). The Hall shot themselves in the foot early on (how good would closing out wins Temple and Va. Tech look now, Pirate fans?), but finally got a huge win over Pittsburgh last week, after leading in the 2nd half against Syracuse, WVU, and UConn. Because of their mid-season “almost wins” it looks like SHU will need 20 wins to get in, meaning they’ll need to win 8 of 11 remaining. They’ll need to beat ND, as well as the bottom feeders left on the docket. A road win against Nova (2/2) or Pitt (2/6) would make things a whole lot easier.
How many teams will the Atlantic 10 end up send dancing?
This has no-doubt been a strong year for the A-10. Temple Basketball has witnessed a resurgence, using an exciting victory over Villanova, to propel them to a strong start and top 20 ranking. With the way they’ve performed out of conference, Temple, along with Xavier and Richmond look like strong bets. However, with both Dayton and URI looming with decent resumes, those teams could be catapulted into the Tourney with either a strong run at the end of the season and/or A-10 Tournament. If that happens and the A-10 sends four or even five teams, that could cost a team like Cincinnati/Seton Hall, Florida or Texas Tech a bid.
Have universities west of Kansas suspended play for the 2009-10 season?
I’ve been in touch with the S.I.D.’s for Pac-10 schools, and yes, school is in session, and teams have been active. At this point should we just move the West Regional games to Indianapolis to cut down on travel costs? All kidding aside, its been brutal for the Pac-10 this year, and its looking like Gonzaga and BYU (2nd rated team in Chad Millman’s fun “Sweat Barometer”) will be the best representation of West Coast hoops at the NCAAs. In all honesty, BYU could be fun. I feel Jimmer Fredette has a Wally Sczerbiak-type March in him, and watching this bunch stroll out after a late timeout against Kentucky or Villanova would be interesting on several levels.
What teams are going to rely on a big March from its lead dog for Tournament success?
The interesting quality found at the top of the bracket is the depth of the teams. Kansas, Villanova, Syracuse, Texas, Kentucky, Mich. St., etc all have multiple options on offense, and do not rely on one guy to carry the load. However, like we’ve seen in the past, teams that do have that guy, can usurp the throne, and ride a hot player for a deep tournament run. For these teams to make any noise, they’ll rely on their stars to perform well:
- Evan Turner, Ohio State – “The Villain” has played his way into the discussion as the first “post-Wall” player taken in the NBA draft. He’s put up astounding numbers when he’s been on the court, but he doesn’t have much help around him, as evidenced by the Buckeye’s play when Turner was sidelined. Turner struggled to get good shots against WVU, and against that quality of team in March, he’ll have to rise above opposing defenses if OSU hopes to advance past the first weekend.
- Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Check the game logs. Other than the thriller against Nova, the Hoyas have lost when Monroe failed to show up – the Hoyas are lacking in talent. The good news? Monroe is often the best player on the court, when he chooses to be. A big tournament for Monroe will likely go hand-in-hand with his team’s success.
- Jon Scheyer, Duke – He hasn’t had the team success of other Duke floor generals, but as much as I hate to admit, Scheyer has quietly put together a Naismith Award worthy season. Kyle Singler has failed to meet expectations (33% from 3-pt? Really?) and even though Nolan Smith makes things happen, Scheyer is what makes Duke’s offense work. He’s averaged 19/6 shooting 44%/90%/40% while playing over 36 minutes a game. There isn’t a plan B – if Scheyer doesn’t show up, Duke could be facing a quick exit.
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