This will be one of the best/worst World Series ever. I start this preview without fully looking at the stats but here's what I do know.
The reason why this is about to be one of the best is because you have two power house offenses going up against each other. Playoffs are about pitching, usually, but fans love runs and big hits. Seven teams this year scored an average of 5+ runs/game. Tampa Bay was the only one of those teams not to make it to theplayoffs but the Yanks/Phils were two of the top 4. Both gave up close to 4.5 runs/game(lower than league average). So if anything, we should expect exciting games, right?
Well, it will be the worst World Series for so many more reasons. First, no matter what happens to the Yankees, you won't hear the end of it for decades. If the Yankees win, it completely defeats my argument of "26 rings mean nothing when you haven't won in a decade." Then there is the whole talk about Alex Rodriguez suddenly being clutch and the best ever, when in factManny Ramirez is the best ever righty. Well if they lose, most fans will turn on Rodriguez claiming that he isn't clutch and that Girardi should be fired. It'll be whining nonstop and asinine comments and facebook posts from fans (then again we will get those in victory, too).
Phillies fans are the pseudo die-hards and somehow take the role of the underdog, which means that the rest of us who aren't Yankee fans are forced to root for the Phillies and act like we are ok with that. I'm not ok with that because I now have to stand up for Pg her. And there's nothing you can do while he is with your little sister. (Something like that?). So Philly fans say things like "Boo... Yankees... You guys are BAD... yah! We won last year." And I am here shaking my head in disbelief.
Now with all that said, here's my in depth preview and completely unbiased, believe it or not.
The sportsbook has the Yankees odds on favorite to win in 6 games, 5 games, or 7 games, before Phillies at all. Then it is almost even odds that the Yankees win in 4 games against the Phillies winning the series at all. Why is that? Phillies are 2-1 this year against the Yankees (2 Brad Lidge blown games).
Here's what I've got.
Game 1: Cliff Lee @ CC Sabathia
This should be an exciting start to the series. Sabathia pitched 8 innings giving up 3 runs on 9 hits while only striking out 4 when these teams met earlier. CC is having a stellar postseason going 3-0 with a 1.19 ERA with opponents batting .205 while striking out 20 in 22.2 innings. Pretty impressive considering prior to this year in the playoffs he was 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA. I'd like to say CC will be dominate this game but I have to believe something is going to change and go back to a time not so long ago, for example, last year when the Phillies took on CC and the Brewers. CC didn't make it out of the 4th inning after giving up 5 runs. The team is nearly identical to last year's offense, if not better this year. Looking at Cliff Lee making his first postseason a memorable is not surprising. Lee has some good stuff and you could say that Lee has been lucky to get 7 runs/game in support but his ERA this postseason is 0.74 with 20 Ks in 24.1 innings. Game 1 goes to Cliff Lee and the Phillies 6-2.
Game 2: Pedro Martinez @ AJ Burnett
The wild card game. This game could decide it all. If either team is able to go up 2-0 that might be the end of the road. Aside from his last start, Burnett has been stellar this postseason as well. Over Burnett's career though he has had his worst inning in the first as opponents hit .277 leading off the game. This will be the key to his success, if the first inning goes smoothly then he should be able to manage a win. Case in point, May 22, Burnett took on the Phillies and lost. He gave up a run in the 1st and the Yankees pats were inept to Brett Myers. Burnett went 6 innings striking out 7 and allowing 5 earned. On the otherhand, who is Pedro Martinez? He shined in the NLCS against the Dodgers going 7 ininngs allowing just 2 hits. Pedro gets better as he pitches deeper into games but when he has too much rest between starts he seems to be less effective. So that is a wash. The Phillies hitting will be the difference this game though. They have the same # of Extra-base hits at home as they do on the road. We've heard a lot about the Yankees new place being a place for the longball, well the Phillies will take full advantage of it. And I asked about Burnett in the 1st inning, well the Phillies hit .278 in the first, only second best to the way they hit in the 4th. In three games at the Stadium the Phillies hit 6 HR. They will add a few more and get another one. Phillies 8-5.
Game 3: Andy Pettitte @ Cole Hamels
The backs will be up against the wall and big game pitcher Andy Pettitte shows up to try and keep the Yankees in it. I hate the cliche "Must-Win Game" but this is close. If they don't win they will still play another game. This game is simple for me. I like Pettitte a lot in this series. The Phils only hit .248 this year against LHP whereas the Yankees hit .286. (Sure you might then say, well why did I pick the Phillies in Game 1 against CC. I explained why.) Hamels has not been consitent as he is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 3 games this postseason. I just don't see this being a game for the Phils in any form. Its a Blowout. Yankees 10-2.
Game 4: CC Sabathia @ Cliff Lee
Welcome back to this duo. A great battle in game 1 lead to the Phils lead in the series. CC had is slip up but will he fall again? Imagine what fans in New York would say or do if that happened, going 0-2 in the World Series? Could CC be a scapegoat for a World Series loss? Probably not. This game will come down to the bullpen and unfortunately for Philly fans, that means Brad Lidge. I don't think Lidge will get the job done and this is where fans in Philly begin to act like the fans we love to hate. Implossion in Philadelphia as we are all tied up. Yankees 4-3 (in 10).
Game 5: AJ Burnett @ J.A Happ
Pedro is getting older and thus much less effective on short rest. The Phillies have the arms lying around to possibly push him back a game depending on how game 5 goes. Happ is a young stud who went 12-4 this year but has struggled a bit in the postseason. In one start in the NLDS, Happ gave up 3 runs in 3 innings @ Colorado. He did however strikeout 4 in that span. Happ has better numbers on the road surprisingly as batters hit .275 off him at Citizens with a .347 OBP. I want to pick Happ to win this game, but that is my bias speaking, really, Burnett and Mariano reclaim the series lead for the Yankees. Yankees 7-4.
Game 6: Cole Hamels @ Andy Pettitte
The Yankees now have two chances to win this game at home. Hamels made a start at Yankee Stadium this year against CC in which Lidge blew the game and the Phillies won in 11 innings. Hamels was affective going 6 ininngs, 2 ER, 5 Ks. Hamels has never pitched on 3 days rest but has decent numbers when going on 4 days. The key to the Phillies staying alive will be Hamels ability to make it through the 6th inning. Hamels doesn't always make it through inning 6 allowing opposing batters to hit .280 off him in that inning but they hit just .230 in innings 7-9 if he can make it. This is a toss up for me but I will rely on the stats from earlier this year when Andy Pettitte took on the Phillies in New York. Pettitte got bailed out by Brad Lidge to keep him off the hook for the loss that game as Pettitte didn't have his best stuff, going 7 innings and allowing 4 ER including 2 HR. I can't expect Hamels to fall on his face twice this series. He will do enough to keep the team in it and get the win. Phillies 8-6.
Game 7: Cliff Lee @ CC Sabathia
I for one hope it doesn't go 7 games and my personal bias would love to see the Phillies sweep just to stick it to Yankee fans and the organization. It took a lot for me to write this preview and keep writing games 5, 6 & now 7 when I could have stopped and just said that the Phillies won. I won't be disappointed regardless of the outcome of this World Series even if the Yankees sweep (that's a lie). When it gets down to game 7 and I've predicted this pitching matchup twice already, how does one unbiasly predict it a third time and provide new insight? I don't know if that is possible. I can fight both sides of the debate as to why I feel each team will win and everytime I say to myself, "You know the Yankees will win this game", the other part of my head says, "But what about that Phillies powerful lineup, one that you don't know about because you watch more American League baseball".... and then it clicks. The DH at Yankee Stadium. The deciding factor in this game. It won't come down to manufacturing runs with pitchers bunting. It won't be managers decisions to sub players. It will be one clutch hit. To have Ibanez, Werth, Victorino, and now another batter will find a way to get a clutch base hit will be a perfect ending to this saga. A Nobody getting it done on a stage of superstars.
Philly fans will riot and do dumb things because thats what they do, and Yankee fans will scream "Matt "Bleeping" Stairs". After all, the curse of A-Rod does it exist, right?
| < Prev | Next > |
|---|
