Sorts of Sports

2011 NFL Season Preview: AFC West

Editor's Note: Our NFL Preview continues with Topher's AFC West preview.

Denver Broncos
2011 Predictions: (5-11), 4th in AFC West

Speculation during and immediately following the lockout was the Broncos would deal starting quarterback Kyle Orton to the Miami Dolphins. The two sides did not come to agreement on a deal, the best possible option for the Broncos. Orton is a very capable quarterback while former first round picks Tim Tebow and Brady Quinn are not. Denver ranked seventh in passing offense in 2010 and look to the continued development of rising star receiver Brandon Lloyd. Jabar Gaffney, who at times was Orton’s favorite target, signed with Washington will be replaced by speedster Eddie Royal, as well as second year man Eric Decker.

Denver’s defense in 2010 was not good. They ranked 25th against the pass and 31st against the run. They drafted linebacker Von Miller, out of Texas A&M. Denver also extended the contract of All-Pro cornerback Champ Bailey. With Robert Ayers and Elvis Dumervil healthy at defensive ends Denver figures to have a solid pass rush. Injuries are already piling up for the Broncos’ defense as tackles Ty Warren and Broderick Bunkley and linebacker DJ Williams are all looking at significant time out. There is no denying the experience in the defensive backfield with Bailey and safety Brian Dawkins but it remains to be seen if the aging stars can improve on a forgettable 2010. Thing are certainly heading in the right direction for the Broncos as they hired former Panthers’ head coach John Fox, and named Hall of Famer John Elway executive vice president of football operations. Fox is known for his run-heavy offensive strategy, and if there is one man who knows about winning in Denver it is Elway.

Key Player: Knowshon Moreno, RB. Entering his third season Moreno needs to stay healthy and show more consistency if the former Georgia Bulldog wants to live up to his first round hype. The addition of Willis McGahee is intriguing because if he can stay healthy he can shoulder some of the load and take some of the hits for Moreno. If Moreno can establish a run-game for Coach Fox, the play action will open up very nicely for Orton.

Key Game: Week 1 vs. Oakland Raiders. The last time the Raiders were in town they hung a 59-14 loss on the Broncos. Week 1 primetime Monday night Denver will look to make a statement of in the AFC West.


Oakland Raiders
2011 Predictions (6-10), 3rd in AFC West

If end of year rankings are any indication of things to come I have good news and bad news for new head coach Hue Jackson and co. In an effort to be glass half full the good news first; the number-two rush offense is back in business with Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. And the bad news; the number-two pass defense lost its best player. The even worse news is the player they lost is one of the top two best pass defenders in the NFL. Nnamdi Asomugha departure to Philadelphia surprised the NFL; but not because he left Oakland, mostly just because he did not sign with the Jets. Veterans Chris Johnson and Michael Huff will need to step up and lead the defensive secondary. The Raiders put their faith in Richard Seymour, by sending New England a first round pick, and he remains a top defensive lineman. Rolando McClain should improve with a year under his belt at middle linebacker and Kamerion Wimbley should play with a renewed confidence, to go along with his new 5-year contract.

The offense will go as Jason Campbell goes. Campbell has a rocket arm and is build like a prototypical NFL quarterback but his decision-making is shaky, at best, and he gets rattled easily. McFadden and Bush will continue to carry the load, and hopefully open up downfield for Jacoby Ford, Louis Murphy and Darius Heyward-Bey. Ford became a favorite target in the second half of 2010. Tight end Zach Miller, last years leading receiver, departed for Seattle but the Raiders acted fast to sign former Giant Kevin Boss to a four- year deal. Boss provides a very good safety net for Campbell and should pick up right where Miller left off. Oakland was undefeated in the AFC West last season, and with the talent on the roster it can be anticipated they continue to steal wins in one of the softer divisions in football.

Key Player: Darren McFadden. Run DMC has the potential to have his name mentioned with AP, CJ2K, and MoJo, not only for having a great nickname but also for being a top back in the league. McFadden is the kind of guy, when healthy, a franchise can be built around, and luckily for the Raiders they have him under contract until 2014.

Key Game(s): Rex Ryan and Gang Green visit Oakland in Week 3 and the Patriots are in town Week 4. Both games are tough for sure (especially back to back) but also a good opportunity for the Raiders to make some noise and turn some heads.

Kansas City Chiefs
2011 Predictions: (10-6) 2nd in AFC West, Wild Card Berth

The preseason was not kind to the Kansas City Chiefs. They failed to win a game. Luckily preseason records mean nothing. Preseason injuries, on the other hand, can be a killer. KC lost Matt Cassel to a rib injury for Week 1 and lost tight end Tony Moeki to a season ending injury. Assuming Cassel’s injury does not linger the Chiefs have a lot to look forward to this season. All Jamaal Charles did was rush for 1,500 yards while splitting carries with Thomas Jones. While Jones still figures to be in the backfield mix, look for Charles to cement himself as an elite back. One of the quietest acquisitions of the short free agency period was the signing of Steve Breaston. Breaston gives Cassel a great number 2 option to Dwayne Bowe. For the first time in recent memory the Chiefs did not draft a defensive lineman in the 2011 draft and elected to take Pittsburgh receiver Jon Baldwin. At 6’4’’ Baldwin figures to be a red zone match up nightmare. The biggest question for the offense is how well will Coach Haley manage the offense following the departure of Charlie Weiss. Cassel certainly has toys to play with, and with an up and coming defense, he needs to manage the games well enough to lead Kansas City to a wildcard spot.

By signing OLB/DE Tamba Hali to an extension the Chiefs insured a strong core of talented defensive players for years to come. Tyson Jackson needs to step up to drop the “bust” tag that was applied to him following a mediocre season in 2010. Glenn Dorsey has the size and athletic ability to be a black hole in the middle of the defense. Cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr provide an above average tandem for the pass defense. Safety Eric Berry is quickly becoming one of the league’s best and has the potential to take over games. KC’s defense could certainly be considered under-rated but they will be on the radar very quickly.

Key Player: Dexter McCluster. Charles or Berry would be obvious choices here but McCluster provides a unique blend of skills that can be utilized at running back or receiver. Coach Haley stated in the off season that he plans to use McCluster in a number of packages, and should he and Cassel get on the same page he could become a serious factor in Kansas City’s bid to win back to back division titles.

Key Game: Kansas City travels to Indianapolis Week 5. While general opinion is that Indy is on the decline, assuming Peyton is healthy the offense is still a formidable test for the young defense. Could be a great display of the recent past versus the near future of the AFC.





San Diego Chargers
2011 Predictions: (11-5), 1st in AFC West

The Chargers ranked first in total offense and total defense in 2010. By resigning safety Eric Weddle and receiver Vincent Jackson San Diego actually improved. Weddle is one of the most underrated safeties in the league and with Jackson healthy and in camp for the duration he will be ready for Week 1. Philip Rivers has the tools to be a top 5 quarterback, and as long as he continues to show maturity he will cement himself in the class right behind Manning and Brady. The offense is returning virtually everyone, highlighted by All-World tight end Antonio Gates. Michael Tolbert, who had a breakout year in 2010, is a great compliment to second-year back Ryan Mathews. Darren Sproles signed with New Orleans ending the “Lightning Bug” years in San Diego. Sproles was a great change up out of the backfield, however with the new kickoff rules his loss should not have too big (pun intended) of a negative effect on the roster. The biggest issue for San Diego will be how quickly they come out of the gates. It has been the Charger way to get off to a slow start, and with stellar second half play they have been perennial playoff teams. The first half of the schedule includes the Patriots, the Chiefs twice, the Jets, and the Packers. If they can win early they should post a very solid record, as they have a relatively soft second half schedule.

Key Player: Ryan Mathews. Matthews, a 2010 first round pick, had a disappointing rookie campaign. Despite being a bigger power back Mathews was beat up and run down and never got into a rhythm. The years experience should help and assuming Rivers continues his stellar quarterback play, Mathews should find a lot of holes going against six and seven man fronts.

Key Game: Week 9 at Green Bay. While clearly weeks 3 and 8 against defending AFC West champs Kansas City have huge divisional implications it will be interesting to see the Chargers go on the road to Lambeau in a matchup that boasts two of the best overall teams in the NFL. Look for a Rodgers and Rivers to attempt to out-throw each other in this one.