NBA Free Agent Crystal Ball

Well the time is here.  Midnight has stuck and the hottest free agent class in maybe the history of the NBA is ready to start being wined and dined.  LeBron James, D-Wade and Chris Bosh are the headliners, but there are plenty of All-Star caliber players to go around.  Without further ado, here's what my crystal ball is revealing ….

LeBron James – The next few weeks are what he wanted – all eyes on LeBron.  LeBron is going to be suited by everyone who can afford him, but theyre are really only 2 real players in the game with a legit shot at signing him, and two pretenders.

Pretender one is Chicago.  If LeBron wants to win now, the Bulls might be his best bet with Thibodeau as the new coach solving Chicago’s defensive issues and star in the making Derek Rose running the point.  But come on, let’s be honest, this is a guy who backed out of a dunk contest that he promised the world he’d be in so they’d talk about it for a year because there was a chance he might lose to DeMar Derozen or Nate Robinson.  And you think he’s about to go play in the house that JORDAN built.  Sorry Bulls fans, not happening.

Pretender two is the Nets.  They have a lot of young talent and potential, a fantastic coach in Avery Johnson (finally someone hired this man), a new owner willing to spend the cash, and a spot in Brooklyn on the horizon.  BUT, none of that is in the present.  The players aren’t ready yet, Avery’s coaching style will take at least a year to click with the team, and I’m not sure LeBron James is going to be swooned by playing on the same court as the Seton Hall Pirates for the next two seasons.  Sorry Jersey, no go for you either.

Player one is his current team, the Cavs.  First there’s the home town nostalgia factor.  Now, don’t be confused, I don’t think it’s the fact that he’s from Akron that plays a part, but more of the disloyalty factor many media outlets will spin if he doesn’t resign with Cleveland and land them a title.  There’s also something to be said for having the power to run the show, even if Dan Gilbert wants us to think LeBron doesn’t have a strangle-hold on the franchise.  The Cavs are going to have to make significant moves in the first few days of free agency to show LeBron their commitment to winning in order to keep him, even though players aren’t going to commit to them without James’ status being known so look for two or three trades to go down involving players like Delonte West (especially if he really was slipping it to Bron’s mom) and Mo “I’m an All-Star” Williams.  The final advantage for the Cavs is that they own his Larry Bird rights and can pay him the most money.

The New York Knicks are the other player, which should come as no surprise.  Forget all the nonsense that about the team not being good enough to win now like the Cavs, Clipper and Nets – New York is New York.  When you’re a superstar there you’re the Mecca of Stars, and from what we’ve seen over the last seven years, LeBron wants to be a celebrity and there’s no better place to be that than New York.  Plus the addition of LeBron automatically makes the Knicks playoff team, and if they can land another big name with their available cap the Knicks easily become, at the very least, the 4^th best team in the East.

And on a side note, don’t be surprised if the Knicks don’t land another big free agent and convince LeBron that if he waits one year he'll be playing side by side with Chris Paul or Carmelo Anthony.

Gut Instinct: New York
Carmona's Pick: Heat (I called it before the season started)

Dwyane Wade

I really don’t need to write anything here. Wade has made it public knowledge that he's the only free agent that intends to stay where he is and bring winners to him.  He may let a few teams wine and dine him to stroke his ego, but ultimately he's going to stay in South Beach.  I think he'll wait it out until Miami signs their other big star and maybe a supporting guy or two, but next season Wade will be in Miami, and won't be playing with butter knives any more.

Gut Instinct: Miami
Carmona's Pick: Heat

Chris Bosh – I know this is the “LeBron Sweepstakes”, but I honestly feel that Bosh’s decision is going to set the tone for the summer movement.  He’s not going to Cleveland unless Toronto is willing to do a sign-and-trade, which would be ridiculous if they have any playoff/title aspirations in the future.  There has been a lot of chatter about a sign-and-trade with the Lakers for Bynum, however I’m not sure LA is willing to give up on one of the few centers in the NBA (plus Bynum healthy makes their defense/rebounding almost unbeatable).  At the end of the day, I see this playing out two ways.  One, Bosh signs with the Heat after Wade after being lured in by the bikinis and appeal of South Beach.  Or two, he thinks he’s a big gun signing first with the Knicks, followed by LeBron.

Gut Instinct: Miami
Carmona's Pick: Heat

Here's how I see the rest of pack shaping out, assuming my big three fall into place…

Amare Stoudumire

Gut Instinct: Chicago
Carmona's Pick: Phoenix

Amare cares about two things - getting his stats, and getting his checks.  Chicago is perfect for both.  The Bulls will be happy to give him a max deal when they don’t land the big three, D-Rose can be another point guard that can make STAT look better than he is, and he won't have to worry about rebounding (which he doesn’t do anyway) because he'll have Noah taking care of the glass.

Joe Johnson

Gut Instinct: New Jersey
Carmona's Pick: Atlanta

Even though the Hawks will offer Johnson a max deal, I think he feels he needs a change of scenery.  Until the Hawks pick up a player that doesn't play the wing (they only have five of them) they're going nowhere.  The Nets have a nice young core and a great coach that can put Johnson and a good situation for the next 4 or 5 years, especially if they can grab another big man this summer.

Carlos Boozer

Gut Instinct: New Jersey
Carmona's Pick: Boston (Wishful Thinking)

With Utah selecting Hayward over a big in the draft, I tend to think they may resign Boozer.  However, Boozer will look for a max deal, and I think the Nets will give him the closest amount of cash to that to show they mean business now.  Plus, if they get Johnson as well, Boozer is a great fit to play down low with Brooke Lopez and with Harris and Johnson off pick-and-rolls.

Dirk Nowitski

Gut Instinct: Dallas
Carmona's Pick: Dallas

He's stuck it out this long, he might as well stick out for the rest of his career.  The only other team that could give him some interest would be the Suns for the possibility to reunite with Nash, but I doubt it.

David Lee

Gut Instinct: New York
Carmona's Pick: Nets

Lee would be a great fit for the Suns offense if Amare ends up leaving, but as I've already said that I think New York is going to convince LeBron that next summer will be the big one and they'll resign Lee as a sign of good faith.  If I'm wrong, look for the Nets or Suns to scoop this double -double machine up.

Ray Allen

Gut Instinct: Boston
Carmona's Pick: Heat

Doc River is back, and Paul Pierce will be too.  Plus with Rasheed retiring Boston will some extra cap space to bring in a solid role player like Mike Miller or maybe Brendan Haywood.  If they don’t give Sugar Ray enough years on the deal he could decide to jump to New York or Miami, but I think he'll spend his remaining days in the Garden.

Paul Pierce
Carmona's Pick: Nets

John Salmons/Rudy Gay/Gilbert Arenas/Carmello Anthony (2 of 4)
Carmona's Pick: Knicks

JJ Reddick
Carmona's Pick: Bulls