Sorts of Sports

Paul Pierce's Best Year?

At about the midpoint of the third quarter, as the Celtics were making a run to reclaim the lead from a competitive Bucks squad, Paul Pierce, bounding up the court, accepted a pass from Rajon Rondo.  Pierce received the ball just outside the three point stripe, proceeded to cross-up Brandon Jennings, and with a level of authority that would rival a late-‘90s Vince Carter delivery, soared across the paint for the one-handed stuff.

Last year, or even two years ago, this sort of athletic outburst would’ve surprised me.  Given the context, a late Sunday night road contest in March against an Eastern conference doormat, this is exactly the sort of game veterans have a tough time “getting up for.”  But the whole sequence – Pierce rebounding, finding Rondo on the outlet, sprinting up the sideline and finishing up at the rim – certainly has not been the rare sighting fans might expect out of a 13-year Celtic.

ESPNBoston’s Chris Forsberg (a must-follow on Twitter) pointed out in a blog post Monday morning, that some advanced statistics indicate Pierce is quietly putting together one of the NBA’s most efficient seasons.  Pierce is well ahead of Manu Ginobili, to lead all players in plus/minus (plus-511 for the season), and is averaging 1.10 points per play, placing him only behind Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Martin.

Further investigation displays just how amazing a season Pierce is putting together.  The 33-year old is averaging 19.1 points per game (three points under his career 22.3 scoring rate), but is doing so at a level of efficiency previously unreached in his career.  From the field Pierce is shooting a career best 50.3% (first season > 50%), and his 85.5% from the free throw line is also the highest of his career.  From beyond the arc, he’s firing at 38.1% - a full percentage point above his career rate.  As those numbers would seem to imply, his True Shooting % of 62% also ranks as a career best.

In the past the Achilles heal of Pierce’s game has been turnovers – both in volume and rate.  In 2003-04 he actually led the NBA in turnovers, and for his career he’s average almost three a game.  This season he’s brought that number down to just two per game.

While Pierce’s career-best offensive numbers is certainly attributed to the effect of playing with two fellow future hall-of-famers, and one of the league’s best distributors, I think its equally important to stake Pierce’s strong season to his improved conditioning.  Pierce has always been a fiery competitor, who held himself and his teammates accountable for performance, but in the past he would never be mistaken for Kobe Bryant or Ray Allen physically.  Never a gifted athlete, he relied on his offensive skill set and savvy to get his points – not superior speed or leaping ability.

Well, the disappointing finish in his native Los Angeles last June, apparently motivated Pierce, as he reported to camp this past fall in the best shape of his career.  Pierce had noticeably slimmed down, and carried an extra bounce in his step.

Thus far the transformation in his body has paid dividends.  Always durable, Pierce has played in all 61 games this season, a rare accomplishment in this injury-plagued Celtics season.  In back-to-back game scenarios – always tough for veterans with mileage Pierce is actually averaging a half-point more per game (19.7).  Before the season, ESPN’s John Hollinger predicted Pierce, coming off a strong ’09-10 campaign, would regress:

A 33-year-old player coming off triple career highs is almost certainly due for some regression. I'm not talking collapse or anything -- he's in great shape and has had no major injuries -- but he's unlikely to match those numbers in 2010-11, and my projection system pegged him to have one of the league's biggest PER declines.

(For the record, Hollinger had Pierce pegged for a 15.55 PER, which Pierce has vastly exceeded posting a 19.75 – his highest since the 2008 championship season.)

What’s perhaps most encouraging about Pierce’s season and conditioning is his recent play.  Over the last month, The Truth has been carrying the team offensively.  After the curious 1-point performance in the Feb. 13 win against Miami, Pierce has put up over 20 in six of eight games sense.

In three games this March, with significant roster changes and injuries shaking up the rotation at levels unseen in Boston sense the infamous ’06-07 Tank-a-palooza, Pierce has kept the #winning! going.  Since losing in Denver following D-Day (Deadline Day), Pierce has averaged 22.2 / 7.5 / 3.0 while shooting 55% from the field and 91% from the line.

Since Day 1 of Kevin Garnett’s arrival in Boston, he has been marked as the heart and soul of the team, bringing intensity, defensive savvy, and selflessness to the floor that has resonated with his teammates and fans.  From me, there will be no argument otherwise.  However, with all the praise directed toward Garnett, I think Pierce’s importance has been a bit understated.  No. 34 has time and again put the team on his back, reflected the same selfless attitude of Garnett, and changed his game and commitment to ensure the Celtics remain at the top of the East. By the looks of it, there’s still enough in the tank to keep it going.